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All About Energy

Natural Gas Storage and Outlook

Curtis Funderburk Jan 26, 2016 12:59:22 PM

The market has been staying close to the $2.15 range. This isn't surprising considering that the weather forecast is pretty bearish into the end of January to early February and the weakness in monthly contract settlement is somewhat at bay for now. 

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The Force Awakens with Natural Gas Today

JB Sowyrda Dec 17, 2015 12:02:00 PM

Even though Jan 16’ is trading in the $1.80 range, buyers need to pay close attention to outer months, winter 16'-17' to be specific if you have a Q3/4 start date.  The latter half of the year is seeing an uptick of about $0.06-$0.07 and is creating a near $1.00 delta between promt month (Jan 16') and promt plus 12 months out (Jan-Feb 17').  

The near-term impact isn't significant right now as prices remain subdued, but a combination of economic events and winter finally appearing will likely help rally the bulls towards the latter part of 16'.  With that being said, the spikes expected towards the tail end of 16' could be short lived as E&Ps reverse course as economics improve.    

As we have seen, the excess gas in storage among other things have driven prices down to levels not seen in 10+ years; just the same, any shortage will likely drive the prices back up.  In my opinion, the combination of winter finally showing up this coming Jan. and Feb., the lowest drilling activity in decades, and oil and gas companies being out of cash to invest, the low prices we're seeing now will ultimately result in lower storage numbers heading into next winter, causing a spike in prices.  Oil and Gas companies will then increase their activity and drive prices down again in 2017.

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