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Summer 2016 SARA Forecasts

Jim Kordoban Mar 1, 2016 1:53:00 PM
Jim Kordoban
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ERCOT released their seasonal forecasts today and the belief isNew ERCOT Logo "sufficient generation available to meet projected peak demand requirements during the upcoming spring and summer seasons." 

The Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for spring 2016 showed a whopping 21,000 MW of excess generation available to serve the roughly 58,000MW of expected peak demand.

 

WHAT WILL THIS SPRING FEEL LIKE?

ERCOT's Senior Meteorolgist, Chris Coleman, believes this spring/summer will be very similar to what we experienced back in May of 2006, however, we should expect those similar weather conditions to happen in late May, once power plant maintenance is completed.  

According to Coleman, there could be a few cooler spots in late spring, but nothing too intense.  It is also likely that we'll get a few glimpses of summer given current weather models showing above normal weather temperatures.

 

SUMMER PEAK AT 70,000MW+??  IT'S POSSIBLE.

According to the preliminary SARA, the 13-year average has ERCOT summer peaking above 70,000MW for which ERCOT believes it will have sufficient resources available.  This marks a first for ERCOT in terms of peak summer demand and ERCOT is adequately resourced with an additional 9,000MW of generation resources.

 

NOAA Seasonal Lookout for Summer

  

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR ME?

Technically speaking, ERCOT believes it will have adequate resources which bodes well for grid stability. 

 

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Topics: ERCOT